John Jaeckel: Positional Evaluation: Forwards

first?

Marcus Kruger '12-'13:

47 GP 4 goals 9 assists (13 points) +3 46.2% FO in 14:10 TOI

Tanner Kero '16-'17:

47 GP 6 goals 10 assists (16 points) +15 44.4% FO in 13:29 TOI


Marcus was 22/23 years old that season, his second full season in the NHL. Kero just finished his first season in the league at age 24.

Both players had eerily similar statistics. Both players are also 6'0" and listed at 185 lbs. We've been comparing Kero and Kruger for much of the season, and it makes a lot of sense.

I think the 'Hawks are hopeful that Kero can indeed become Kruger 2.0, which in any team's case, would be an extremely valuable player to have on any team's bottom-six.

Losing Kruger would be tough, because he's the kind of player you want come April/May, but I think if anyone on this team can be replaced with what is currently on the roster, it's obviously him, which is why I think he will be exposed (and hopefully picked) by the Knights. I almost expect Stan to trade a 4th/5th round pick to McPhee for him to take Kruger off our hands, and leave TvR be.

Fantastic report John
A lot to digest.

I miss the days Hawks we're Edmonton and Toronto.

Young, Fast - up and coming.

Nice review - I can't argue with any of your grades.

What's scary beyond your analysis is the dramatic lack of production by the 7 players noted below, all of whom played more than 1/2 of the regular season games and we're much of the bottom six for the team:

Kruger, Schmaltz, Kero, Rasmussen, Tootoo, Hinostroza, Desjardins

They totaled 29 goals + 58 assists = 87 points in 391 games and 4,584 minutes.

That calculates to 0.07 GPG + .15 APG = .22 PPG

And (to adjust for lower ATOI for some of them) 0.37 GP60 + 0.76 AP60 = 1.13 PP60

Maybe a year's experience for some of them improves that, maybe injuries healed lead to improvement - but somehow - while trying to get more out of Toews' line - they also need dramatic improvement on the bottom (and I know that Hossa and Hartman, in part-time play, provided some good 3rd line scoring).

Blues
Hawks
Wild
Gone

Preds move on
Wow

the mustard colored cinderellas...blow through the blows in 6...WC final preds vs ducks...

should be scintillating....

2nd in the league in scoring isn't deserving of an "A" for Kane? Other than that minor detail, I'd agree with pretty much everything else. Roster changes are needed unless the Playoffs, and not a Cup Championship, is the "One Goal". Not sure there are any obvious or easy fixes given the buyer's market, high Cap Hits, and No-Trade-Clauses. Stan will have to get much more aggressive AND creative than he has ever been. Not sure I'm expecting the big move that appears to be objectively necessary, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Agreed with all of JJ's assessment.
Huge opportunity for Bowman to make some hockey trades with that bottom six and perhaps come up roses for next year.
Trades, as in plural.

I don't hate Pekka Rinne and that's all I gotta say about the Preds/Blues series...

I think the C for Toews stood for Captain not his grade. I'd give him a D and that's being generous!

Agreed with all of JJ's assessment.
Huge opportunity for Bowman to make some hockey trades with that bottom six and perhaps come up roses for next year.
Trades, as in plural.

I don't hate Pekka Rinne and that's all I gotta say about the Preds/Blues series...
- 35Tony0

entertaining post-game interview. His accent sounded like a mix of different regions in the UK.

I'm hoping for a few hockey trades from Stan this summer; Hawks need more talent and experience throughout the roster - size and speed too.

But I'm getting the feeling what will really determine if the Blackhawks are Cup contenders next year or not is how much of a bounce back happens from the vets that do return among Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Panarin, AA, & Kruger. None of them had their best year last year.

I expect - and kind of hope - that at least one or two of them is traded, but if they do come back, I hope they can regain top form. It's the only way this team makes it back to being a top team.

2nd in the league in scoring isn't deserving of an "A" for Kane? Other than that minor detail, I'd agree with pretty much everything else. Roster changes are needed unless the Playoffs, and not a Cup Championship, is the "One Goal". Not sure there are any obvious or easy fixes given the buyer's market, high Cap Hits, and No-Trade-Clauses. Stan will have to get much more aggressive AND creative than he has ever been. Not sure I'm expecting the big move that appears to be objectively necessary, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
- EnzoD

Moving Panarin makes a LOT of sense if you ask me. Just not sure how feasible it is.

The Ducks will be a much tougher matchup for the Preds. The Blues weren't expected to make it far this year (No Brouwer, Backes, Fabbri, Shatt). I bet Ducks will make it to the finals against the Caps.


The Preds need to win it this year because the expansion draft is going to claim one of their top 4 D. Also Johann will be getting a fat contract after this year and will probably make around ~8 mill AAV.

Very in depth Jj. I'm surprised at the high grades. I would've thought you'd be tougher on the boys. I guess we need straight A's to win the cup.

How do you teach hunger? That's what we need. (Imo )

...

Nice review - I can't argue with any of your grades.

What's scary beyond your analysis is the dramatic lack of production by the 7 players noted below, all of whom played more than 1/2 of the regular season games and we're much of the bottom six for the team:

Kruger, Schmaltz, Kero, Rasmussen, Tootoo, Hinostroza, Desjardins

They totaled 29 goals + 58 assists = 87 points in 391 games and 4,584 minutes.

That calculates to 0.07 GPG + .15 APG = .22 PPG

And (to adjust for lower ATOI for some of them) 0.37 GP60 + 0.76 AP60 = 1.13 PP60

Maybe a year's experience for some of them improves that, maybe injuries healed lead to improvement - but somehow - while trying to get more out of Toews' line - they also need dramatic improvement on the bottom (and I know that Hossa and Hartman, in part-time play, provided some good 3rd line scoring).
- StLBravesFan

Thx Sage (and everyone else).

I think there's some more upside to Schmaltz, clearly. I think he's gonna be a pretty nice player, if not for the hawks, then for someone. He has to get stronger and with that strength more confident in close quarter play (in the dot and along the wall). I also think he needs to play with finishers.

Hinostroza I think can be a really useful player in an energy/pest role. He has to get better thinking the game and especially getting the puck out of his end.

Kero may have some more upside, but I think it is as a lower line/utility type guy.

Would be nice if they keep Kruger if he had a bounceback season. He was good in the playoffs (mostly) and has been noticeable for Sweden in the international tourney going on now.

Yes, beefing up the bottom 6 would be great. But I still think the BIG needs are skill/speed left wing and another 50%+ FO option. Matt Duchene, anyone?

This is a subject for another blog (and I am going to blog on this specifically soon), but I've had a couple of people now hit me up with questions about the Hawks trading up in the draft.

Personally, I think that's counter-intuitive. The Hawks don't need more prospects or "futures" (well, they do, but . . .). The greater need is for a couple of proven NHL caliber forwards that fill the above needs right now, or one that does both.

So unless you see a McDavid type guy at the top of the draft who can realistically help you in the next 2 years, and I mean REALLY help you not just get overhyped and over rationalized like the last batches of prospects have been, then the Hawks need to be looking at packaging draft picks . . . and their better prospects . . . for guys who can fill roles NOW.

With Keith and Seabrook and Hjalmarsson and Toews and Hossa and even Kane, the future is really RIGHT NOW.

If you're drafting and trading for 3-4 years out, I got news, that team is not going to be a Cup contender anyway.

I'm sure it's due, in part, to the incoming Reebok jersey contract, but still gotta hurt McD/Wirtz that they're offering Blackhawks jerseys at "buy one, get one."

http://www.nbcchicago.com...rce=SocialFlowTwt_CHBrand

Agreed with all of JJ's assessment.
Huge opportunity for Bowman to make some hockey trades with that bottom six and perhaps come up roses for next year.
Trades, as in plural.

I don't hate Pekka Rinne and that's all I gotta say about the Preds/Blues series...
- 35Tony0

Some of the credit goes to the Preds defense. A lot of it goes to Laviolette, he's totally out coached two teams now.

I'm sure it's due, in part, to the incoming Reebok jersey contract, but still gotta hurt McD/Wirtz that they're offering Blackhawks jerseys at "buy one, get one."

http://www.nbcchicago.com...rce=SocialFlowTwt_CHBrand
- pdx2ord

Richards has Kane and Toews sweaters for $59.

I keep typing "Richards....." and it keeps coming up Richards LOL

I give up!

Richards has Kane and Toews sweaters for $59.

I keep typing di and it keeps coming up Richards LOL

I give up!
- walleyeb1

http://m.Richardssporting...eSize=48&searchTerm=toews

Very strange guess you have to figure it out on your own.

Excellent write up as always JJ. I am still betting down on one of the big 3 ending up in Edmonton. I have a feeling Seabrook ends up going their.


Edit: Big 3 being one of Keith, Hammer, or Seabrook

Two more goals today for Debrincat including the game winner.

You have to keep Panarin. What we need to do is lose Seabrook, Krueger, Toews, to save cap space. Then ensure we don't bring back Campbell, Roszival, Oduya. Pickup a cheaper alternative to Crawford. Then load the defense with big, fast and punishing defenseman. Then add a couple of fast and large left wings. Then the rest of our smurf size offensive line should then have space to flourish as the rest make then space.
- fvineze

Toews is going no where. Zero percent chance. The Blackhawks as a franchise relocate before Toews get traded. He is retiring a 'Hawk. A one-franchise player.

Any [remote] possibility of him being moved will not happen. Those scenarios should just end.

I highly doubt Oduya is retained anyways. The team needs to get younger defensively, not older.

Seabrook might get moved, but I don't think any trade involving him makes the 'Hawks better. It would essentially be a move to re-load for the future and unload cap space. If the 'Hawks are hoping to contend next season, you can't move him. He remains a top-pairing d-man.

Everyone can point to wanting "bigger", "more physical", etc. but that's not how Q coaches his teams. We have NEVER been that kind of a team under him in his 9(?) years here. We might bring in players that can play the Bickell, Shaw roles, but I wouldn't all of a sudden expect a change in strategy.

Panarin is not the same caliber of player he is without Kane. Kane is certainly better with Panarin on his line, but Kane makes everyone around him better. Panarin is coming off another 70+ point campaign, is a top-six winger, and has an affordable two years left on his contract. He WILL have suitors that are looking for offense. I'd strongly consider moving him before moving Seabrook, Hammer, etc. Even with our dearth of talent in the top-six.

Oilers apparently want a game 7 - they're up 4-0 in the 1st. Gibson already chased.

League is about speed now. Oilers proving it, Penguins proved it, Leafs, even Predators.

5-0 Oilers in first. LOL.